Martingale Bust Calculator
18+ only. Contains affiliate links — we may earn a commission. Not for residents of the US, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Austria, Australia, Ontario or Vietnam. Not legal or financial advice.
Find the losing-streak length that exhausts a fixed starting-bankroll progression or blocks the next bet at the table limit. Then calculate the exact probability of encountering that streak within a set number of rounds. Here “bust” means reaching that fixed threshold, not necessarily a zero balance.
Example inputs: replace with your own figures
Result
| Affordable consecutive losses | 6 |
|---|---|
| Fixed-threshold bust probability | 56.50694523% |
| Expected net return per unit wagered | -1% |
18+ · Educational tool. All calculations run in your browser. Examples are not casino rates.
Exact means no random sampling; DP still uses floating-point arithmetic. Example inputs are not casino terms.
How it is calculated
- For gross payout d > 1 and base bet b, recovery stakes grow by g = 1 + 1/(d − 1). Stake j is b × g^j and the cost of L losses is b × (g^L − 1)/(g − 1). At d = 2 this is ordinary doubling.
- Capacity L is the greatest number of consecutive losing bets affordable from the initial bankroll while each stake stays within the table maximum. L = 0 means the initial bet cannot be placed.
- Exact DP tracks surviving probability S[j] at loss-run length j. With win chance p: next S[0] = p × ΣS[j], next S[j + 1] = (1 − p) × S[j], and bust gains (1 − p) × S[L − 1]. Overlapping streaks count once.
- Independent bets, a fixed starting-bankroll threshold and unrounded recovery stakes are assumed. Profits do not enlarge that threshold. This is not an exact changing-bankroll ruin probability. At most 10,000 rounds and 2,000,000 DP state updates are allowed.
Sources GitHub: martingale-bust-simulator
18+ · No formula removes the house edge. Do not chase losses; set limits and only use money you can afford to lose. Help and limits.
Related reading
Frequently asked questions
How does this differ from the risk of ruin simulator?
The simulator changes the bankroll after every bet and caps bets at the remaining balance. This calculator computes an exact fixed-threshold streak probability, including a table limit. The models answer different questions.
Does doubling eliminate the house edge?
No. The win chance and payout determine expected value per unit wagered: p × d − 1. Increasing stakes does not improve it.
Why can bust happen with money left?
The next recovery stake can exceed the remaining bankroll or table maximum. Bust here means the progression is blocked, rather than that all money has gone.
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